Saturday, October 3, 2015

Pakistan an unreliable U.S. ally


The United States has given more than $30 billion in economic and military aid to Pakistan since 2002. Pakistan has been a recipient of American aid for more than half a century, and aid was increased substantially after 9/11 to seek Pakistan's cooperation in the war on terror.

Despite U.S. generosity, Pakistan has been an unreliable ally in fighting terrorism. The United States has threatened to withhold $300 million in military assistance if Pakistan does not make serious efforts to go after terrorists targeting U.S. and Afghan troops in Afghanistan. If the United States does indeed withhold aid, Pakistan will be punished for the first time for its duplicitous role in the war on terror.

Pakistan was one of only three countries — the other two are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — that recognized the Taliban government. The Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 1996 and was ousted after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. Under its leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, the Taliban had provided protection to Osama bin Laden, founder and leader of al-Qaida and mastermind of the 9/11 attacks.

Notwithstanding Pakistan's promise to be a U.S. partner in the war against terrorists, albeit for a price, it has been a safe haven for terrorists. Then-National Security Director John Negroponte said in January 2007 that Pakistan was "a major source of Islamic terrorism." Bin Laden was killed by the U.S. Navy Seals in 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was hiding, apparently under the protection of Pakistan's military or intelligence services. Mullah Omar reportedly died in 2013 in a Karachi, Pakistan, hospital.

Pakistan's military and especially intelligence services have been sympathetic to the Taliban. U.S. Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the Haqqani network, a Taliban ally in Pakistan, "a veritable arm" of Pakistani military intelligence in 2011.

Pakistan sometimes has helped in controlling terrorists, especially in the tribal area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Pakistan's military launched a major attack against the terrorists in North Waziristan in 2014. There is little doubt, however, that Pakistan has provided sanctuary for terrorists from the Taliban, the Haqqani network and al-Qaida.

The United States has only 9,800 troops in Afghanistan. Their main function is to train Afghan forces to combat terrorism. Almost all U.S. troops will be withdrawn by the end of 2016. President Obama hopes to leave a legacy of ending war in Afghanistan. If recent history is any guide, that outcome is unlikely.

U.S. troops were withdrawn from Iraq at the end of 2011, fulfilling an Obama campaign promise of ending the Iraq war. U.S. leaders assumed Iraqi forces were trained by the U.S. troops to withstand any terrorist onslaught. Unfortunately, the Iraqi military has not been able to stop the advance of Islamic State.

Afghanistan faces a precarious future without U.S. help. Afghan security is threatened not only by the Taliban, but by the arrival of ISIS and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. If the United States withdraws its military almost completely by the end of next year, the Afghan government probably will fall within a year or two.

If Pakistan gets serious about ending terrorism, it certainly will help, especially because of the close relations of its military and intelligence services with the Taliban. That is unlikely to happen, however, because of the unreliability of Pakistan as an ally in the war on terror.

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