Thursday, January 29, 2015

Obama’s Indian courtship leaves Pakistan feeling snubbed by US

US President Barack Obama's high-profile visit to India was something of a surprise. First, he was meeting a prime minister, Narendra Modi, who, before his election, was barred from entering the US due to his involvement in the infamous Gujarat anti-Muslim riots. 

And this visit sends a negative message to Islamabad. With US forces soon withdrawing from Afghanistan and Pakistan currently bearing the brunt of the War on Terror, ignoring Pakistan indicates a new regional focus for Washington in New Delhi.

Pakistan would have hoped Obama to raise the issue of Line of Control violations from the Indian side, but instead, Obama gave a wrist slap to Islamabad for ineffective efforts on counter-terrorism.

Pakistan is currently in the middle of a major military offensive, Zarb-e-Azb, which has also caused a major backlash in the form of the brutal Peshawar school attack in December. Defense analysts in Pakistan believe that the operation, considered a major success of sorts, was primarily started on Washington's insistence, even though Pakistan's stricken economy could barely afford it at that time. 

Unfortunately, Pakistan and India barely talk nowadays.

In this situation, even a small rogue attack on either side of the border could spark major tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors. 

With a long-due civil nuclear agreement between India and the US finally pinned down, and Obama's promise of an Indian place in the UN Security Council, eyebrows are bound to be raised in Pakistan. 

The Indian media and nationalist leaders have already started boasting of Obama's visit as a victory for India and defeat for Pakistan. 

What concerns the Pakistani policymakers is the fact that even the bans on Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, two notorious militant outfits allegedly involved in anti-Indian activities, have drawn little appreciation or praise from the Indian side. 

Furthermore, while pursuing his reconciliation strategy with India, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan has time and again advised the Pakistani military to show restraint against any form of Indian violations on the Line of Control border in the disputed Kashmir territory. 

Although this strategy has not gone across well with nationalist and right-wing parties, many believe that any form of aggression from Pakistan would only worsen the matters. 

In contrast, Modi's narrative and policy of offensive defense against Pakistan has further added to the skepticism of those hoping for better ties among the neighbors. 

But it seems that all is not lost for Pakistan. Even with the hot and cold relationship with the US and tense ties with India, Pakistan is looking to China as its ever reliable partner, neighbor and friend. 

General Raheel Sharif's visit to China, where he met with his Chinese counterpart Qi Jianguo, provided some respite for Pakistani officialdom and politicians. Both the military chiefs reiterated their decades-long friendship, where China, calling it as an irreplaceable friend, reassured Pakistan of its strategic support to ensure peace and stability in the region. 

Since September last year, both Modi and Obama have met four times for various official purposes. Had both of them met the Pakistani leadership on such a frequent basis, things would have taken a positive turn in the region.  

Not only could better Indo-Pak ties ensure regional security, but the same could help improve regional economic disparity. 

Obama is walking a fine line here as his actions, if they alienate Pakistan, could hamper the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Obama would not like Afghanistan to become another Iraq, and thus leave a legacy behind him marred by failure. 

While Obama has made two official visits to India, not visiting Pakistan has not only peeved politicians, but also raised doubts over the US commitment toward the country. 

Obama, who considers both India and Pakistan as allies, could play a major role in restarting the Indo-Pak peace process and dialogue. Without such an intervention, peace will always remain an elusive dream and fantasy. 

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