By Gaurav Dixit
Afghanistan’s pivotal geostrategic location has always exposed it to periodic disturbance, either from within the country or from the outside in power battles for supremacy in the region. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, Afghanistan has survived various political and military intrusions. The most scourging have been the ordeal under the Taliban rule and the succeeding international invasion, and the long relatively futile occupation by the US-led forces.
As international troops are about to withdraw from Afghanistan, there is every possibility that it would become the fulcrum around which various countries’ political fortunes will be built; because for the countries in South, Central and West Asia, Afghanistan is going to remain the vantage point from where they can consolidate their regional supremacy.
Among various Asian countries battling for preeminence like China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India and Saudi Arabia, there have been a few unorganized, informal alliances and counter structures to neutralize each other’s influence in the region. The most dynamic and influential among all has been the Saudi Arabia and Pakistan alliance in the region, often endorsed by China. These countries in particular have different strategical pursuits, and at times overlapping or counter interests that ultimately determine the fluctuation of their Afghan policy.
For a country like Pakistan, at stake are its economic, cultural, political and diplomatic interests. The pressure to safeguard its interests in the contested region requires more than diplomatic or economic means, which has driven Pakistan to use external sources and military might to preserve its interest. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s incorporation into the Islamic sphere of influence, its military weakness, lack of diplomatic room for manoeuvre and focus on economic buildup for long meant that a major part of its policy in Afghanistan was driven by the financial and military trade-off relation it shares with Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia has no immediate interest in Afghanistan as far as its economic plan is concerned. However, its policy in Afghanistan derives its distinctiveness from the impact Afghanistan has on Pakistan, Saudi’s ally, and Iran, its enemy in the region. Secondly, its involvement in the region has its own religious dimension. Pakistan, which in earlier centuries has looked upon Saudi Arabia for its theological revival, has endorsed Riyadh’s religious policies in the region. Similarly, Pakistan has cautiously traded with Saudi Arabia’s policy on Iran, showing a varying degree of assimilation and rejection of Iran’s interest in Afghanistan – occasionally, to combat India’s involvement in the region in alliance with Iran and Russia.
The distinctive correlative dependence between the two countries at the political and diplomatic level makes it really a powerful alliance in the region. The growing involvement of Saudi Arabia has also extended Pakistan’s influence in the region making it practically indispensable to ignore its influence.
Will the alliance be good at a larger level?
The two countries have stepped up engagement in the last six months with successive visits to Pakistan by Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal and Deputy Defence Minister Prince Salman bin Sultan. Earlier, Pakistan’s new Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif made his first overseas trip to Saudi Arabia. The trip was termed as a “new era in strategic partnership” between the two countries. The intensified bilateral engagement consists of military and defence and economic engagement.
Recently, Saudi Arabia loaned $1.5 billion to Pakistan to support its foreign exchange reserves and undertake large energy and infrastructure projects. It was also meant to derail a $7.5-billion gas pipeline project with Iran. Consequently, the project now seems to be out of the question. Iran had in December cancelled a $500 million loan promised in 2012. The renewed engagement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has aggravated Pakistan-Iran ties. These developments will have a resultant impact in Afghanistan.
The recent mistrust over Iran by Saudi Arabia has worsened the relation between the US and Saudi Arabia, pushing it more towards Pakistan. Pakistan has been struggling with its ties with the USA since the last couple of years. The worsening ties have the potential to impact the US’ advantage over these two countries in mediating in Afghanistan.
Saudi’s policy shift in Afghanistan
In the meantime, there has been substantial shift in Saudi’s policy towards peace talks with the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government. In 2008 and 2010, Saudi Arabia was the key peace broker between the two warring factions. But recently Saudi Arabia has shown little or no interest in initiating or promoting such peace talks. Now, more often than not, it has been a passive spectator of the Afghan crisis. Unlike its policy in Pakistan, where it is arguing for peace talks with the Pakistan Taliban, Saudi Arabia has sidelined the issue of similar talks with the Afghan Taliban.
The long and failed international occupation in Afghanistan on the enhanced offensive of the Taliban might assist in reviving Saudi’s previous policy of promoting a Pakistan-friendly, hence Saudi-friendly power in Afghanistan. In the past both countries were important facilitators for Taliban. Pakistan’s material and intelligence aid to groups embracing Taliban’s ideologies in Afghanistan was effectively sustained by the theological oversight and financial support from Saudi Arabia. Saudi has since very long promoted identical form of religious Sunni doctrines across West, Central and South Asia.
The possibility of the new Afghan president catering to the interest of Pakistan is less likely, considering the historical involvement of Pakistan in Afghanistan to facilitate anti-state powers like Taliban, Hekmatyar and Haqqani groups. Leading presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah is known to be anti-Pakistan, anti-Taliban and backed by Iran. It is quite obvious that if Abdullah Abdullah becomes president, the new Afghan regime will try to boost ties with neighbouring countries including Iran, which in turn would be against the interest of the Saudi-Pakistan alliance.
Saudi Arabia will never favour a pro-Iranian government in Afghanistan, as both the countries in the past have competed for their strategic interest by backing various ethnic groups, promoting their religious ideologies, enhancing economic ties and at times influencing insurgent groups. Both are promoters of different and competitive forms of Islam, Shia and Sunni. The Iran and Saudi-Pakistan rivalry during the Taliban era is likely to be resurrected if the Saudi-Pakistan interest is subordinated under the new government.
Even a loose diplomatic understanding of the history suggests that withdrawal of the international troops will create a vacuum in Afghanistan. The two powerful neighbours, Iran and Pakistan, will battle for their space; and as long as Pakistan sees its interests in Afghanistan marred by uncertainty, it will try to solicit Saudi Arabia’s help to seek ‘strategic depth’ or the ‘Taliban card’ to consolidate its position in the region. Saudi Arabia will back Pakistan in the region to preserve its own strategic gains, against Iran’s religious and economic interests in Afghanistan, posing a potential threat to regional equilibrium.
Friday, April 25, 2014
WILL SAUDI-PAKISTAN ALLIANCE UPSET REGIONAL EQUILIBRIUM? – ANALYSIS
By Gaurav Dixit
Afghanistan’s pivotal geostrategic location has always exposed it to periodic disturbance, either from within the country or from the outside in power battles for supremacy in the region. Situated at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, Afghanistan has survived various political and military intrusions. The most scourging have been the ordeal under the Taliban rule and the succeeding international invasion, and the long relatively futile occupation by the US-led forces.
As international troops are about to withdraw from Afghanistan, there is every possibility that it would become the fulcrum around which various countries’ political fortunes will be built; because for the countries in South, Central and West Asia, Afghanistan is going to remain the vantage point from where they can consolidate their regional supremacy.
Among various Asian countries battling for preeminence like China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India and Saudi Arabia, there have been a few unorganized, informal alliances and counter structures to neutralize each other’s influence in the region. The most dynamic and influential among all has been the Saudi Arabia and Pakistan alliance in the region, often endorsed by China. These countries in particular have different strategical pursuits, and at times overlapping or counter interests that ultimately determine the fluctuation of their Afghan policy.
For a country like Pakistan, at stake are its economic, cultural, political and diplomatic interests. The pressure to safeguard its interests in the contested region requires more than diplomatic or economic means, which has driven Pakistan to use external sources and military might to preserve its interest. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s incorporation into the Islamic sphere of influence, its military weakness, lack of diplomatic room for manoeuvre and focus on economic buildup for long meant that a major part of its policy in Afghanistan was driven by the financial and military trade-off relation it shares with Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia has no immediate interest in Afghanistan as far as its economic plan is concerned. However, its policy in Afghanistan derives its distinctiveness from the impact Afghanistan has on Pakistan, Saudi’s ally, and Iran, its enemy in the region. Secondly, its involvement in the region has its own religious dimension. Pakistan, which in earlier centuries has looked upon Saudi Arabia for its theological revival, has endorsed Riyadh’s religious policies in the region. Similarly, Pakistan has cautiously traded with Saudi Arabia’s policy on Iran, showing a varying degree of assimilation and rejection of Iran’s interest in Afghanistan – occasionally, to combat India’s involvement in the region in alliance with Iran and Russia.
The distinctive correlative dependence between the two countries at the political and diplomatic level makes it really a powerful alliance in the region. The growing involvement of Saudi Arabia has also extended Pakistan’s influence in the region making it practically indispensable to ignore its influence.
Will the alliance be good at a larger level?
The two countries have stepped up engagement in the last six months with successive visits to Pakistan by Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal and Deputy Defence Minister Prince Salman bin Sultan. Earlier, Pakistan’s new Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif made his first overseas trip to Saudi Arabia. The trip was termed as a “new era in strategic partnership” between the two countries. The intensified bilateral engagement consists of military and defence and economic engagement.
Recently, Saudi Arabia loaned $1.5 billion to Pakistan to support its foreign exchange reserves and undertake large energy and infrastructure projects. It was also meant to derail a $7.5-billion gas pipeline project with Iran. Consequently, the project now seems to be out of the question. Iran had in December cancelled a $500 million loan promised in 2012. The renewed engagement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has aggravated Pakistan-Iran ties. These developments will have a resultant impact in Afghanistan.
The recent mistrust over Iran by Saudi Arabia has worsened the relation between the US and Saudi Arabia, pushing it more towards Pakistan. Pakistan has been struggling with its ties with the USA since the last couple of years. The worsening ties have the potential to impact the US’ advantage over these two countries in mediating in Afghanistan.
Saudi’s policy shift in Afghanistan
In the meantime, there has been substantial shift in Saudi’s policy towards peace talks with the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government. In 2008 and 2010, Saudi Arabia was the key peace broker between the two warring factions. But recently Saudi Arabia has shown little or no interest in initiating or promoting such peace talks. Now, more often than not, it has been a passive spectator of the Afghan crisis. Unlike its policy in Pakistan, where it is arguing for peace talks with the Pakistan Taliban, Saudi Arabia has sidelined the issue of similar talks with the Afghan Taliban.
The long and failed international occupation in Afghanistan on the enhanced offensive of the Taliban might assist in reviving Saudi’s previous policy of promoting a Pakistan-friendly, hence Saudi-friendly power in Afghanistan. In the past both countries were important facilitators for Taliban. Pakistan’s material and intelligence aid to groups embracing Taliban’s ideologies in Afghanistan was effectively sustained by the theological oversight and financial support from Saudi Arabia. Saudi has since very long promoted identical form of religious Sunni doctrines across West, Central and South Asia.
The possibility of the new Afghan president catering to the interest of Pakistan is less likely, considering the historical involvement of Pakistan in Afghanistan to facilitate anti-state powers like Taliban, Hekmatyar and Haqqani groups. Leading presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah is known to be anti-Pakistan, anti-Taliban and backed by Iran. It is quite obvious that if Abdullah Abdullah becomes president, the new Afghan regime will try to boost ties with neighbouring countries including Iran, which in turn would be against the interest of the Saudi-Pakistan alliance.
Saudi Arabia will never favour a pro-Iranian government in Afghanistan, as both the countries in the past have competed for their strategic interest by backing various ethnic groups, promoting their religious ideologies, enhancing economic ties and at times influencing insurgent groups. Both are promoters of different and competitive forms of Islam, Shia and Sunni. The Iran and Saudi-Pakistan rivalry during the Taliban era is likely to be resurrected if the Saudi-Pakistan interest is subordinated under the new government.
Even a loose diplomatic understanding of the history suggests that withdrawal of the international troops will create a vacuum in Afghanistan. The two powerful neighbours, Iran and Pakistan, will battle for their space; and as long as Pakistan sees its interests in Afghanistan marred by uncertainty, it will try to solicit Saudi Arabia’s help to seek ‘strategic depth’ or the ‘Taliban card’ to consolidate its position in the region. Saudi Arabia will back Pakistan in the region to preserve its own strategic gains, against Iran’s religious and economic interests in Afghanistan, posing a potential threat to regional equilibrium.
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