Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Pakistan:Where is the cease-fire?

In the restive tribal areas of Pakistan terrorism stems as much from religious extremism as from the lairs of crime mafias. But there is enough of evidentiary material to suggest that both sides live and flourish under the overarching umbrella of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Then there are sub-groups the TTP leadership has directed "to respect and fully abide by the cease-fire declaration and restrain themselves from all kinds of jihadi activities". Within hours of TTP announcement the Bara-based Mulla Tamance group waylaid the security squad of anti-polio team killing 11 including a civilian and injuring many - only to be fiercely retaliated by army helicopters which killed five terrorists. Next day, the district courts located in the heart of Islamabad came under a suicidal attack killing a judge and 10 others in addition to some three dozen injured in the assault. And, Hafiz Gul Bahader, who enjoys immense clout in North Waziristan, that has announced his Taliban are not part of the understanding between the TTP and the government. Who then the government is talking to and who is to secure the cease-fire promised by the Taliban leadership. Apparently, there are quite a few unknowns, or undisclosed, links and pieces in the process with potential to derail the bilateral cease-fire understanding. That the government 'reserves the option and the armed forces reserve their right to react and take counteraction against the troublemakers, the interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali may be quite categorical in expressing the government resolve but how would he know that the TTP or any of its outfits is not involved in a particular terrorist act. Terrorist networks exist throughout the country, some alive and kicking and others hibernating as sleeper cells. And some have honed specialisation to undertake specific errands if and when asked for. No doubt then some people tend to interpret the Nawaz Sharif government's peculiar adjustments to keep alive peace talks with Taliban as a tactic to put off the much-awaited military operation in North Waziristan. There is just no room for this leniency unless one buys the theory that the Taliban are a natural reserved force of the rightists in national politics.
Ideally, the momentum built in the wake of surgical strikes should have continued till the job of total eradication of terrorists' hideouts wherever they are in Pakistan. The month-long relief from military action granted to the TTP has the inbuilt risk of giving terrorists sufficient time to regroup and revive their lethality. Since that is no more the case and government is prepared to sit with them at the negotiating table there are certain dos and don'ts that official interlocutors must observe. One, all of the talk has to be within the parameters of the constitution. The TTP side has to swear unqualified allegiance to the constitution irrespective of its reservations - the government simply doesn't have the mandate to concede anything which militates against the letter and spirit of the constitution. Two, before the regular talks begin the TTP must declare on whose behalf it would be talking to the government. In case, which is quite likely, as it happened in the case of suicide attack on the district court in Islamabad yesterday, it disowns representation of a certain group or groups it should name them and make no issue if security forces take retaliatory action against them. Though the TTP promptly denied any link with the Islamabad courts attack but the incident has all the hallmarks of suicide-bombings the entity has specialised long ago. Three, not only the talks have to be held at the place of the government's choosing but also not open-ended. Where in Pakistan is the 'demilitarised safe zone' the Taliban want as the venue for talks - reminiscent of The 38th Parallel dividing the two Koreas. So, even when 'talking to Taliban' - a strong sentiment with the Nawaz Sharif government - Islamabad must give a serious thought to the possible end product which may not be as pleasing as being forecast by some interested quarters. Not only has the TTP made no commitment as to its principal position on constitutional rule and democratic process, it is also not in a position to commit anything on behalf of other terrorist entities. Then, the proposed scheme of talks is localised to tribal areas while the menace of terrorism is almost evenly spread to most of the country. By granting a comparable status to the committed killers as stakeholders and worthy partners to the cause of peace in Pakistan the government has put itself to a severe test of competence in the eyes of people. Is the government prepared to conduct peace parleys with other violent entities that number in scores? Let's pause and think deeply, before we leap.

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