Wednesday, March 19, 2014

CHINA: Russian revival more benefit than threat

Moscow has shrugged off all warnings from the West and announced Crimea's return to its embrace. Russian President Vladimir Putin's geopolitical courage has rocked the US and Europe and was not expected by global strategists.
Putin has been dominant in the crisis taking place on the European continent. He seems to be announcing that Russia has recovered from the fall of the Soviet Union and has gained momentum in securing Russia's interests.
The West is in a state of depression. Small countries neighboring Russia have expressed anxiety. Opinions in China are divided into two groups: One highly praises Putin's counterstrike against the West and believes Putin's tough stance will help reduce China's strategic pressure from the West. The other worries that Russia's victory in Crimea will boost its arrogance and Beijing will find it difficult to deal with the country in the future.
Both sound reasonable, as the first is based on China's geopolitical reality and the latter comes out of historical experience.
China has suffered at the hands of the Russian Empire in the past. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Moscow offered concrete assistance, but also made us breathless. Therefore, some people worry that a Russia experiencing a revival will bring back a new geopolitical nightmare for China.
But China is not as weak as it was in the 19th and early 20th century. The strength of China in Asia and even the world cannot be compared to the past. The gap between the strength of China and Russia has changed fundamentally.
The two have carried out comprehensive strategic cooperation, but at the public level, mistrust does exist. Given the geopolitical environment of the two countries' development potential, Beijing doesn't need to be as watchful as Moscow.
For quite a long time in the future, the most strategic pressure will come from the US-led West. This pressure is not only geopolitical but also ideological. China promotes a multipolar world and a powerful Russia can accelerate this, which is much better than a unipolar world led by the US.
Putin holds on to the outdated thinking of "sphere of domain," which may trigger frictions with China as its influence in Central Asia expands. But the divergence between the two is not beyond management, and the two have initiated the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So let's turn back to Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Russia has been driven away from its original sphere of influence. Restoring its influence in Eastern Europe is an unavoidable challenge for Russia during its revival process.
As long as Beijing properly handles its cooperation and divergence with Moscow and joins hands with it on global issues, the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership will become a solid foundation of their global diplomacy. In the coming years, Russia will not pose a strategic threat to China. China should become used to Russia's revival, and maintain its own interests when dealing with Russia.

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