Saturday, October 6, 2012

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Islamabad

The post-haste arrival of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Islamabad to explain sudden postponement of President Putin's visit is indeed a positive development as it marks a clear departure from the decades-old tundra-cold Pakistan-Russia relationship. It's also indicative of Moscow's revived strategic interest in this region after withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989. Is Islamabad ready to embrace Russia's reanimated interest in the region of late, it appears to be still preparing for it? Ordinarily, after the Russian President's abrupt 'postponement' of visit, the situation would have required Army Chief General Kayani to cancel his visit to Moscow. To many in Pakistan the excuse that President Putin couldn't make it to Islamabad because of 'rescheduling problems' was too flimsy, and the media had talked of some plausible causes for the no-show incident. With hindsight, however, it appears that Moscow was not playing roulette; Lavrov was here for good 48 hours and his open condemnation of drone attacks as infringement of Pakistan's territorial integrity amply suggests a definite change of mind and heart towards Pakistan. Even when the host foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, was a bit ambiguous on the drone saga - she, in line with her earlier take on it in Washington, upheld the "objective" of strikes but questioned the methodology - the Russian foreign minister was absolutely unequivalent. Since drone attacks violate Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity these are not acceptable - a position more tougher than what our foreign minister wants us to believe. And as Foreign Minister Lavrov shared Pakistanis' rejection of drone attacks he also unfolded the blueprint of Moscow's expectations from Pakistan, especially in Afghanistan beyond end of next year when the Nato forces quit the country. "On Afghanistan we feel answers should come from within the country and the region...All proposals should come from the territory of Afghanistan and foreign partners should only encourage these proposals, as lots of remedies were imposed from outside but none of them worked in Afghanistan," he said at the media encounter after talks at the Foreign Office. And he also discussed with the host government other issues including Syria, Libya and Iranian nuclear programme, and found to "have common concerns". Of course, they did not find much being jointly done at the international forums on these issues but Islamabad's position on them is largely in a state of flux and does show early signs of tilting towards the Russians'. China, another important stakeholder in the regional security, too is on the same page, which tends to influence Pakistan's policymaking. And with West bending too low towards India and the United States playing the lead role in that direction Russia's reinvigorated interest in this region sits well with Pakistan's. But one swallow doesn't make the summer. There have to be more such visits and exchanges. Likewise, the regional multinational forums like Shanghai Co-operation Organisation have to be proactive - for which the West's dwindling economic and financial interest in this part of the world presents a real opportunity. Despite the frozen, if not hostile and adversarial, political bilateral relationship for many decades the avenues for economic co-operation were always there, and in some areas like energy and steel manufacturing they were very productive. Pakistan Steel Mills, and the OGDC, the country's premier industrial landmarks, are there to prove how Russia can come here again to help Pakistan get rid of perennial energy shortages. It is heartening to learn from Foreign Minister Khar that "in the next few months we'll be able to move beyond MoUs to specific projects". And that is very much possible that some progress has already taken place on CASA-1000 project, TAPI gas pipeline, and rail link with Central Asian states which can be expedited.

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